Forecasting Mango Production and Area in Punjab, Pakistan for 2021-2029
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61506/01.00358Keywords:
Area, ARIMA, Box Jenkins-approach, Correlograms, Forecast, Mango, StationaryAbstract
Production of Mango in Pakistan has increased due to use of improved farm inputs and better management practices. Despite an increased production and rising demand in the export market, the potential of mango export has, however, not been fully achieved. Pakistan has comparative advantage in the production of Mango and enormous potential exists for its export in the vast Middle East market. The Punjab province of Pakistan which account for 63% of the country's total mango output. The objective of this study is to predict the area and output of mangoes of Pakistan's Punjab province for the year 2029. For this purpose, the 63-year data from 1957-2019 has been collected from Crop Reporting Service Punjab. Box-Jenkins method has been used to build an appropriate Univaraite ARIMA model. The best model was chosen after a comparison of the models' mean absolute percentage error, root mean squared error, stationary R-square, and other properties. The area's acceptable model was ARIMA (1,1,0) and production’s acceptable model was ARIMA (1,1,1). Additionally, this estimate predicts that by 2029, the area will be (246.46-279.63) hectors and output will be 1358.10-1538.47) million tons. The results of this study will be useful to government planners, marketers, businesses and purchasing nations.
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