Crude Oil Price and Inflation in Pakistan
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Abstract
Economy of Pakistan has witnessed several inflationary episodes and voluminous literature has been presented in
this regard but no specific attention has been given to the impact of crude oil prices on inflation in Pakistan. This
research is particularly aimed to determine the existence and intensity of relation between crude oil price and
inflation in Pakistan. Moreover the study also investigates other determinants of inflation in Pakistan. Effects of
crude oil price on GDP deflator have been analyzed using time series data from 1979 to 2012. For long run and short
run results Johansen Co-integration techniques have been employed for estimation. The study concludes that Money
Supply, Crude Oil Price, Exchange Rate, Interest rate and Indirect taxes have positive while real GDP has negative
impact on inflation during the study period.
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