BUSINESS OR POLITICS: EXPLORING THE DETERMINANTS OF POLICY MIX IN SOUTH ASIA

Authors

  • AMJAD ALI Lahore School of Accountancy and Finance, University of Lahore, Pakistan Author
  • ZOHAIB UL HASAN Lahore School of Accountancy and Finance, University of Lahore, Pakistan Author
  • QASIM ABBASI Lahore School of Accountancy and Finance, University of Lahore, Pakistan Author
  • FIAZ AHMAD SULEHRI Lahore School of Accountancy and Finance, University of Lahore, Pakistan Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.61506/01.00001

Keywords:

policy mix, monetary freedom, fiscal freedom, defense spending, health and education expenditures

Abstract

This study explores the determinants of policy mix in South Asia from 2000 to 2022, by using panel least squares and fixed/random effect models. We have used defense spending, health and education expenditures, corruption levels, and financial development, whereas policy mix, monetary freedom and fiscal freedom have been used as dependent variables. In South Asian nations, defense spending have statistically insignificant and adverse affect on policy mix. Conversely, higher investments in health and education show a notable positive impact on the policy mix, contributing to overall well-being and economic stability. Corruption levels and financial development do not significantly correlate with the policy mix. Our study also uncovers distinct relationships between these independent variables and fiscal and monetary freedom. Defense expenditures negatively affect fiscal freedom, while health and education spending plays a positive role. A well-educated and healthy workforce significantly enhances fiscal freedom. Corruption levels have no significant linear relationship with fiscal freedom, but financial development creates a trade-off between financial stability and fiscal freedom. Interestingly, defense expenditures positively affect monetary freedom, highlighting their role in creating a secure environment for investments. Education spending also positively impacts monetary freedom. Corruption levels do not significantly correlate with monetary freedom, but financial development negatively affects it, indicating a trade-off between financial development and monetary freedom. To enhance policy mix and economic and monetary stability in South Asia, we recommend strategically allocating more resources to the health and education sectors. Careful assessment and possible reallocation of defense budgets can reduce the fiscal burden and promote efficient resource utilization. Balancing defense spending with economic priorities can maximize its positive impact on monetary freedom, stimulating economic growth in the region.

References

Abadie, A., & Gardeazabal, J. (2003). The economic costs of conflict: A case study of the Basque Country. American economic review, 93(1), 113-132.

Abid, F., & Afzal, S. (2020). Impact of military expenditure on economic growth: Evidence from South Asian countries. PLS ONE, 15(2), e0228802.

Abubakar, R. M., Zulkafli, A. H., & Taufiq Hassan, S. (2020). An Overview of Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interaction in Developing Countries. International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 10(1), 62-72.

Adejare, A. T. (2014). Impact of monetary policy on industrial growth in Nigeria. International journal of academic research in business and social sciences, 4(1), 18.

Ades, A., & Di Tella, R. (1999). Rents, competition, and corruption. American economic review, 89(4), 982-993.

Aghion, P., Akcigit, U., & Howitt, P. (2015). What Do We Learn from Schumpeterian Growth Theory? In Handbook of Economic Growth (Vol. 2, pp. 515-563). Elsevier.

Ahmed, R. (2021). South Asia’s economy forecast to rebound in 2021, but COVID-19 is still a risk. World Bank.

Ahsan, A. H. M. M., Ahmed, M. S., & Begum, R. A. (2018). Non-development expenditure and fiscal policy effectiveness: Evidence from South Asian countries. Journal of Asian Economics, 55, 54-62.

Aknc, U., & Tüncer, H. (2018). Macroeconomic determinants of stock market performance in developing economies: Evidence from Turkey. International Journal of Financial Studies, 6(1), 13.

Alesina, A., Barbiero, O., Favero, C. A., Giavazzi, F., & Paradisi, M. (2018). The Effects of Fiscal Consolidations: Theory and Evidence. Journal of Economic Literature, 56(3), 903-70.

Ali, A, Khokhar, B. Sulehri, F. A. (2023). Financial Dimensions of Inflationary Pressure in Developing Countries: An In-depth Analysis of Policy Mix. Journal of Asian Development Studies 12 (3), 1313-1327.

Ali, A. (2015). The impact of macroeconomic instability on social progress: an empirical analysis of Pakistan. (Doctoral dissertation, National College of Business Administration & Economics Lahore).

Ali, A. (2018). Issue of Income Inequality Under the Perceptive of Macroeconomic Instability: An Empirical Analysis of Pakistan. Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 56(1), 121-155.

Ali, A. (2022). Determining Pakistan's Financial Dependency: The Role of Financial Globalization and Corruption. Journal of Business and Economic Options.

Ali, A. (2022). Foreign Debt, Financial Stability, Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Growth in South Asian Countries. Journal of Business and Economic Options.

Ali, A. and Bibi, C. (2017). Determinants of Social Progress and its Scenarios under the role of Macroeconomic Instability: Empirics from Pakistan. Pakistan Economic and Social Review 55 (2), 505-540.

Ali, A., & Ahmad, K. (2014). The Impact of Socio-Economic Factors on Life Expectancy in Sultanate of Oman: An Empirical Analysis. Middle-East Journal of Scientific Research, 22(2), 218-224.

Ali, A., & Audi, M. (2016). The impact of income inequality, environmental degradation and globalization on life expectancy in Pakistan: an empirical analysis. International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, 4 (4), 182-193.

Ali, A., & Audi, M. (2018). Macroeconomic environment and taxes revenues in Pakistan: an application of ARDL approach. Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), 7(1), 30-39.

Ali, A., & Audi, M. (2023). Analyzing the Impact of Foreign Capital Inflows on the Current Account Balance in Developing Economies: A Panel Data Approach. Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, 18(2), 80.

Ali, A., & Rehman, H. U. (2015). Macroeconomic instability and its impact on the gross domestic product: an empirical analysis of Pakistan. Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 285-316.

Ali, A., & Şenturk, I. (2019). Justifying the Impact of Economic Deprivation, Maternal Status and Health infrastructure on Under-Five Child Mortality in Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis. Bulletin of Business and Economics, 8(3), 140-154.

Al-Shatti, A. S. (2014). The effect of fiscal policy on economic development in Jordan. International business research, 7(12), 67.

Anwar, M., & Ahmad, M. (2012). Political determinants of budget deficit in Pakistan: An empirical investigation (No. 135). HWWI Research Paper.

Anwar, S., Nguyen, L. P., & Zhang, J. (2016). Monetary Policy and Bank Lending Behavior in Developing Countries: Evidence from Vietnam. Journal of Asian Economics, 46, 56-70.

Ashraf, I., & Ali, A. (2018). Socio-Economic Well-Being and Women Status in Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis. Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), 7(2), 46-58.

Asiedu, E. (2002). On the Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment to Developing Countries: Is Africa Different? World Development, 30(1), 107-119.

Audi, M & Ali, A. (2017). Socio-Economic Status and Life Expectancy in Lebanon: An Empirical Analysis. Archives of Business Research, 5(11), 159-170

Audi, M., & Ali, A. (2016). A Causality and Co-integration Analysis of Some Selected Socio-Economic Determinants of Fertility: Empirics from Tunisia. Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), 5(1), 20-36.

Audi, M., & Ali, A. (2023). Public Policy and Economic Misery Nexus: A Comparative Analysis of Developed and Developing World. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 13(3), 56.

Audi, M., Ali, A., & Hamadeh, H. F. (2022). Nexus Among Innovations, Financial Development and Economic Growth in Developing Countries. Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, 17(4).

Azam, M., & Khan, B. (2019). The politics of macroeconomic policy in South Asia: An institutional perspective. Economic and Political Weekly, 54(30), 55-62.

Baker, R. W. (2005). Capitalism's Achilles heel: Dirty money and how to renew the free-market system. John Wiley & Sons.

Barro, R. J. (1991). Economic growth in a cross section of countries. The quarterly journal of economics, 106(2), 407-443.

Beck, T., Demirgüç-Kunt, A., & Levine, R. (2007). Finance, inequality and the poor. Journal of economic growth, 12, 27-49.

Beck, T., Levine, R., & Loayza, N. (2000). Finance and the Sources of Growth. Journal of financial economics, 58(1-2), 261-300.

Bekaert, G., & Harvey, C. R. (2000). Foreign speculators and emerging equity markets. The journal of finance, 55(2), 565-613.

Berggren, N. (2003). The benefits of economic freedom: a survey. The independent review, 8(2), 193-211.

Bhattacharya, J., Chakraborty, D., & Mukherjee, S. (2018). Environmental sustainability in South Asia: A review of emerging concerns. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 25(17), 16517-16535.

Bianchi, F., & Ilut, C. (2017). Monetary/fiscal policy mix and agents' beliefs. Review of economic Dynamics, 26, 113-139.

Bianchi, F., & Melosi, L. (2019). The dire effects of the lack of monetary and fiscal coordination. Journal of Monetary Economics, 104, 1-22.

Bianchi, F., Faccini, R., & Melosi, L. (2020). Monetary and fiscal policies in times of large debt: Unity is strength (No. w27112). National Bureau of Economic Research.

Blanchard, O. (2019). Public debt and low interest rates. American Economic Review, 109(4), 1197-1229.

Bloom, N., Van Reenen, J., & Williams, H. (2019). A toolkit of policies to promote innovation. Journal of economic perspectives, 33(3), 163-184.

Carvalho, D., Ferrero, A., & Nechio, F. (2018). Demographics and monetary policy. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 33(1), 379-431.

Clemens, E. S. (2007). Toward a historicized sociology: Theorizing events, processes, and emergence. Annu. Rev. Sociol., 33, 527-549.

Collier, P. (2005). The Collier-Hoeffler model of civil war onset and the case study project research design. Understanding civil war: Evidence and analysis, 1, 1-33.

Cutler, D., & Lleras-Muney, A. (2006). Education and Health: Evaluating Theories and Evidence (No. 12352). National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

Deger, S., & Sen, S. (1983). Military Expenditure and Development in Developing Countries. Journal of Peace Research, 20(3), 249-252.

Dreher, A., Fuchs, A., Parks, B., Strange, A. M., & Tierney, M. J. (2020). Apples and Dragon Fruits: The Determinants of Aid and Other Forms of State Financing from China to Africa. International Studies Quarterly, 62, 182-194.

Dridi, M., & Shabandri, M. (2019). Determinants of economic growth in South Asian countries: An empirical investigation. Journal of Economic Structures, 8(1), 1-23.

Emmenegger, P., Häusermann, S., & Walter, S. (2018). National Sovereignty vs. International Cooperation: Policy Choices in Trade‐Off Situations. Swiss Political Science Review, 24(4), 400-422.

Frieden, J. A. (1991). Invested Interests: the politics of national economic policies in a world of global finance. International Organization, 45(4), 425-451.

Friedman, M. (1968). The Role of Monetary Policy. American Economic Review, 58(1), 1-17.

Glavas, A., & Mish, J. (2015). Resources and capabilities of triple bottom line firms: going over old or breaking new ground?. Journal of Business Ethics, 127, 623-642.

Grossman, H. I. (1991). A general equilibrium model of insurrections. The American Economic Review, 912-921.

Hameed, A., & Amen, M. A. (2011). Monetary Policy and Its Impact on the Economy: A Review. Journal of Applied Finance and Banking, 1(3), 53-67.

Hanushek, E. A., & Woessmann, L. (2012). Schooling, educational achievement, and the Latin American growth puzzle. Journal of Development Economics, 99(2), 497-512.

Heckman, J. J., & Masterov, D. V. (2007). The Productivity Argument for Investing in Young Children. NBER Working Paper No. 13016. National Bureau of Economic Research.

Hegre, H., Metternich, N. W., Nygård, H. M., & Wucherpfennig, J. (2017). Introduction: Forecasting in peace research. Journal of Peace Research, 54(2), 113-124.

Hussain, M. A., Rahman, A. M. A., Sultana, S., & Alam, M. J. (2021). Determinants of the policy mix in South Asia. The Journal of Developing Areas, 55(1), 67-84.

Imoisi, A. I., Olatunji, L. M., & Ekpenyong, B. I. (2013). Monetary policy and its implications for balance of payments stability in Nigeria: 1980-2010. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 5(3), 196-204.

Jalal, A. (1995). Democracy and authoritarianism in South Asia. Cambridge University Press.

Jha, P. K., Ramaswami, B., & Mukhopadhyay, P. (2019). Macroeconomic policies, poverty, and inequality in South Asia. World Development, 116, 214-225.

Kaminsky, G. L., & Reinhart, C. M. (1999). The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems. American economic review, 89(3), 473-500.

Kapoor, M., & Ranganathan, S. (2018). Lobbying and the Indian government: Evidence from the 2G spectrum scandal. Journal of Public Economics, 157, 149-162.

Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A., & Mastruzzi, M. (2009). Governance matters VIII: aggregate and individual governance indicators, 1996-2008. World bank policy research working paper, (4978).

Kaur, H., Ashraf, S., & Mirza, S. S. (2021). COVID-19 and the policy mix in South Asian countries. Journal of Public Affairs, 21(2), e2348.

Keynes, J.M., (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. Book 3, Chapter 10, Section 6, p. 129.

Khandker, S. R., & Koolwal, G. B. (2017). Lobbying on entry regulations: Theory and evidence from India. Journal of Development Economics, 126, 190-202.

Khemani, S. (2004). Political cycles in a developing economy: effect of elections in the Indian states. Journal of development Economics, 73(1), 125-154.

Kugler, R. L. (2006). Policy Analysis in National Security Affairs: new methods for a new era. Government Printing Office.

La Porta, R., Lopez‐de‐Silanes, F., & Shleifer, A. (1999). Corporate ownership around the world. The journal of finance, 54(2), 471-517.

Leeper, E. M., & Leith, C. (2016). Understanding inflation as a joint monetary–fiscal phenomenon. In Handbook of Macroeconomics (Vol. 2, pp. 2305-2415). Elsevier.

Levine, R. (1997). Financial development and economic growth: views and agenda. Journal of economic literature, 35(2), 688-726.

Lucas Jr, R. E. (1988). On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of monetary economics, 22(1), 3-42.

Mankiw, N. G. (2000). The Savers-Spenders Theory of Fiscal Policy. American Economic Review, 90(2), 120-5.

Mankiw, N. G. (2019). Macroeconomics. Book, Worth Publishers.

Mankiw, N. G., Romer, D., & Weil, D. N. (1992). A contribution to the empirics of economic growth. The quarterly journal of economics, 107(2), 407-437.

Mauro, P. (1995). Corruption and growth. The quarterly journal of economics, 110(3), 681-712.

Mauro, P. (1998). Corruption and the Composition of Government Expenditure. Journal of Public Economics, 69(2), 263-279.

Meltzer, A. H., & Richard, S. F. (1981). A rational theory of the size of government. Journal of political Economy, 89(5), 914-927.

Mishkin, F. S. (2021). The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets (14th ed.). Pearson.

Oudiz, G., Sachs, J., Blanchard, O. J., Marris, S. N., & Woo, W. T. (1984). Macroeconomic policy coordination among the industrial economies. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1984(1), 1-75.

Pisani-Ferry, J. (2017). Fiscal discipline and policy coordination in the Eurozone: assessment and proposals. In The political economy of the European Constitution (pp. 119-139). Routledge.

Rashid, A., Zaman, K., & Saqib, N. (2021). The impact of political instability on fiscal policy and economic growth in South Asian countries. Economic Analysis and Policy, 70, 82-93.

Rodrik, D. (2000). Institutions for High-Quality Growth: What They Are and How to Acquire Them. Studies in Comparative International Development, 35(3), 3-31.

Romer, C. D., & Romer, D. H. (2017). Why some times are different: Macroeconomic policy and the aftermath of the 2007 financial crisis. American Economic Review, 107(8), 2409-2441.

Rose-Ackerman, S. (1999). Political corruption and democracy. Conn. J. Int'l L., 14, 363.

Saha, M., & Darnton, G. (2005). Green companies or green con‐panies: Are companies really green, or are they pretending to be?. Business and society Review, 110(2), 117-157.

Schaechter, M. A., Kinda, M. T., Budina, M. N., & Weber, A. (2012). Fiscal Rules in Response to the Crisis: Toward the" Next-Generation" Rules: A New Dataset. International Monetary Fund.

Schoenmaker, D., & Wierts, P. (2018). Macro prudential Policy: What We Have Learned and Where to Go. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 50(8), 1787-1815.

Schultz, T. W. (1961). Investment in human capital. The American economic review, 51(1), 1-17.

Siklos, P. L. (2021). The Role of Politics and Institutions in the Policy Mix. IMF Working Papers, 21/27, 1-38.

Stiglitz, J. E. (2010). Freefall: America, Free Markets, and the Sinking of the World Economy. W. W. Norton & Company.

Taylor, J. B., & Wieland, V. (2016). Finding the Equilibrium Real Interest Rate in a Fog of Policy Deviations. Business Economics, 51(3), 147-154.

Treisman, D. (2000). The causes of corruption: a cross-national study. Journal of public economics, 76(3), 399-457.

Wei, S. J. (2000). How Taxing Is Corruption on International Investors? Review of Economics and Statistics, 82(1), 1-11.

World Bank. (2019). South Asia's hotspots: The impact of temperature and precipitation changes on living standards. Washington, DC: World Bank Group.

World Bank. (2020). Military expenditure (% of GDP) - India.

Downloads

Published

2023-10-20

Issue

Section

Articles

How to Cite

ALI, A. ., HASAN, Z. U. ., ABBASI, Q. ., & SULEHRI, F. A. . (2023). BUSINESS OR POLITICS: EXPLORING THE DETERMINANTS OF POLICY MIX IN SOUTH ASIA. Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), 12(3), 114-123. https://doi.org/10.61506/01.00001