Macro-Economic Determinants of Fertility Rate: A Case Study of Pakistan

Abstract

The aim of this study is to find out the macro-economic determinants of fertility rate in Pakistan. This study used
time series data for assessing the model over the period of 1971 to 2014. The VECM model is used for short run and
ARDL technique is utilized to find out long run association between dependent and independent variables. The
empirical results of this study argue that for achieving low level of fertility rate, government should increase
secondary school enrollment and try to increase life expectancy by introducing new medical reforms and provide
advance medical facilities. Fertility rate in Pakistan can also be control by controlling inflation and urbanization rate.
The results of the short run also show the convergence in the long run. The statistics shows that inflation rate and
urbanization rate is positively related to fertility rate while secondary school enrollment rate and life expectancy at
birth rate has negative impact on fertility rate in short run as well as in long run.