Assessing the Severity of Consequences of Floods in Pakistan: Applying the ISM Modelling and MICMAC Analysis

Abstract

The study aims to assess the severity of the consequences of floods in Pakistan.  The study's overall design includes reviewing relevant literature, collecting data from primary sources, and modeling & analyzing the phenomena. The population under study comprises the folk stakeholders of the phenomenon. The sampling design is purposive (focus group consisting of experts), whereas the sample size is fourteen experts, i.e., a medium size panel. The method of modeling is Interpretive Structural Modelling (ISM) and the method of analysis is Cross Impact Matrix Multiplication Applied to Classification (MICMAC). Results of ISM modeling show that consequences namely, reduced food supply, destroyed crops, destroyed food stockpiles, destroyed infrastructures, economic strain on entire population, and disruption in trade and commerce inhabit Level I. Consequences namely: lost livelihoods of farmers, destroyed livestock, destroyed equipment, injuries and deaths, disrupted schedules of transportation, inundate agricultural lands, reduction in soil fertility and increased prices inhabit Level II. The consequence namely: destroyed seeds inhabit Level III. The consequence: displaced populations inhabit Level IV. The consequence: damaged and destroyed housing inhabit Level V. The consequence: spreading of waterborne diseases inhabit Level VI. Results of scale-centric MICMAC analysis show that spreading of waterborne diseased is independent, and reduced food supply is dependent quadrant bur all other are linking and there is no autonomous factor. Results of data-centric MICMAC analysis show that destroyed seeds, destroyed equipment, and spreading of waterborne diseased are independent and lost livelihoods of farmers, reduced food supply, destroyed food stockpiles, destroyed livestock, destroyed infrastructures, damaged and destroyed housing, displaced populations, and disruption in trade and commerce are dependent quadrant. Destroyed crops, economic strain on entire population, injuries and deaths,  disrupted schedules of transportation, inundate agricultural lands, reduction in soil fertility, and increased prices are linking. The autonomous quadrant is empty as there is no factor categorized in this quadrant. It is an original valuable study because it is based on real time experimental first-hand data collected by authors that have hands on job of data collection for decades. It also uses unique and different methodologies to collect data, modelling and analysis. This methodology is simple, unique and clearly understandable by wide range of folks of stakeholders. Its results are also logically appealing and realistic corresponding to ground realities. The will enrich the understanding of national/local governments, regulators, industry representatives, landowners/farmers, general public (including households, local communities, village committees community workers local labor, disabled people, minorities, senior citizens and women etc.), scientific community and others contributors to the system, institutions engaged in disaster management, international donor agencies, academia, politicians & political parties, flood-prone communities, NGOs, volunteers, regional institutions, media, suppliers of goods & material, civil organizations, private institutions and other affected, interested or vulnerable groups (like social beneficiary groups, non-social beneficiary groups, social adversely affected groups and non-social adversely affected groups) by way of deeper insights into the conundrum issue of floods.