Economic Growth and Financial Intermediation Nexus in Pakistan: An ARDL Analysis

Authors

  • Zahid Mehmood Akhtar PhD Scholar, Department of Management Sciences, NUML, Islamabad, Pakistan Author
  • Dr. Faid Gul Professor, Department of Management Sciences, NUML, Islamabad, Pakistan Author
  • Dr. Fauzia Mubarak Associate Professor, Department of Management Sciences, NUML, Islamabad, Pakistan Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.61506/01.00238

Keywords:

Financial Intermediation, Economic Growth, Cointegration

Abstract

This paper explores the relationship between economic growth and financial intermediation in Pakistan. By utilizing data from 1996 to 2022, presence of cointegration in the long run is investigated by employing the auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, whereas error correction model (ECM) is used to depict short run linkages. The augmented dickey fuller (ADF) test verifies the stationarity properties of the series. The results show that financial intermediation promotes economic growth both in short run as well as in long run and confirm the view of Schumpeter regarding finance growth nexus. The findings also reveal that investment and human development also significantly contribute to productivity and economic expansion whereas public expenditure exhibits a positive but insignificant effect due to crowding out effects. The study found that despite improvements in Pakistan's financial structure, sustainable economic growth requires an enabling investment climate and robust governance which can be achieved by implementing suitable reforms for development of a well-organized financial sector.

References

Ackah, I. (2023). Examining Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in Ghana. Journal of Business and Economic Options, 10(1), 29-36.

Alaabed, A., & Masih, M. (2016). Finance-growth nexus: Insights from an application of threshold regression model to Malaysia’s dual financial system. Borsa Istanbul Review, 16(2), 63-71.

Ali, A. (2015). The impact of macroeconomic instability on social progress: an empirical analysis of Pakistan (Doctoral dissertation, National College of Business Administration & Economics Lahore).

Ali, A., & Afzal, M. (2016). Human Capital Development and Economic Growth: A Panel Data Analysis. Journal of Policy Options, 3(3), 49-59.

Ali, R. (2014). The role of bank-based finance in economic growth of Pakistan. Middle-East Journal of Scientific Research 22, 82-90.

Ali, S. B., & Mohsin, A. (2023). Exploring Financial Soundness and Economic Growth Dynamics in Pakistan. Journal of Business and Economic Options, 10(1), 1-15.

Alpha, B. B., Ding, Y., Abdrahmane, K., & Kargbo, M. (2016). A study on the impact of financial intermediation on economic growth: Panel evidence from West Africa. Journal of Management Policies and Practices, 4(1), 27-55.

Aluko, O. A., & Ibrahim, M. (2020). Institutions and the financial development–economic growth nexus in sub-Saharan Africa. Economic Notes,

Ang, J. B. (2008). A survey of recent developments in the literature of finance and growth. Journal of Economic Surveys, 22(3), 536–576.

Ang, J. B., & McKibbin, W. J. (2007). Financial liberalization,financial sector development and growth: evidence from Malaysia. Journal of Development Economics, 84(1), 215-233.

Ansong, A., Marfo-Yiadom, E., & Ekow-Asmah, E. (2011). The effects of financial innovation on financial savings: evidence from an economy in transition. Journal of African Business, 12(1), 93–113.

Arcand, J. L., Berkes, E., & Panizza, U. (2015). Too much finance? Journal of Economic Growth, 20, 105-148.

Arestis, P., & Demetriades, P. (1997). Finance and growth: Institutional considerations, financial policies, and causality. Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, 2(1), 37-62.

Ayogu, M. (2023). Fostering Transparency and Accountability Enhancing Statutory Audits in Nigeria. Journal of Business and Economic Options, 10(1), 37-44.

Bara, A., & Mudzingiri, C. (2016). Financial innovation and economic growth: evidence from Zimbabwe. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 13, Iss. 2, 65–75.

Barro, R. J. (1991). Economic growth in a cross section of countries. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(2), 407–443.

Beck, T., Buyukkarabacak, B., Rioja, F. K., &Valev, N. T. (2012). Who gets the credit? and does it matter? household vs. firm lending across countries. The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics,12(1) 1-46.

Beck, T., Degryse, H., & Kneer, C. (2014). Is more finance better? Disentangling intermediation and size effects of financial systems. Journal of financial stability, 10, 50-64.

Beck, T., Demirguc-Kunt, A., & Levine, R. (2004). Finance, inequality, and poverty: Cross-country evidence. National Bureau of Economic Research Cambridge, Mass., USA.

Ben Naceur, S., Ghazouani, S., & Omran, M. (2007). Does Financial Market Liberalization Spur Economic and Financial Development in the MENA Region?. Available at SSRN 979122.

Bencivenga, V. R., & Smith, B. D. (1991). Financial intermediation and endogenous growth. The review of economic studies, 58(2), 195-209.

Bentzen, J., & Engsted, T. (2001). A revival of the autoregressive distributed lag model in estimating energy demand relationships. Energy, 26(1), 45–55.

Berthelemy, J. C., & Varoudakis, A. (1996). Economic growth, convergence clubs, and the role of financial development. Oxford economic papers, 48(2), 300-328.

Bose, N., Haque, M. E., & Osborn, D. R. (2007). Public expenditure and economic growth: A disaggregated analysis for developing countries. The Manchester School, 75(5), 533-556.

Bosma, N., Content, J., Sanders, M., & Stam, E. (2018). Institutions, entrepreneurship, and economic growth in Europe. Small Business Economics, 51, 483-499.

Chen, S. (2022). Dynamics of GDP Growth and Unemployment: Evidence from Developed and Developing Asian Countries. Journal of Business and Economic Options, 9(3).

Chineze, A. E. (2023). Unlocking Economic Growth Through Taxation in the case Nigeria. Journal of Business and Economic Options, 10(4), 19-25.

Chong, E. Y. L., Mody, A., & Sandoval, F. V. (2017). Finance and growth: The direction of causality. VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal.

De-Gregorio, J., & Guidotti, P. E. (1995). Financial development and economic growth. World Development, 23(3), 433-448.

Deidda, L., & Fattouh, B. (2002). Non-linearity between finance and growth. Economics Letters, 74(3), 339-345.

Demetriades, P. O., & Rousseau, P. L. (2016). The changing face of financial development. Economics Letters, 141, 87-90.

Demetriades, P. O., Rousseau, P. L., & Rewilak, J. (2017). Finance, growth, and fragility. Working Paper No. 17/13, University of Leicester.

Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1057–1072.

Ductor, L., & Grechyna, D. (2015). Financial development, real sector, and economic growth. International Review of Economics and Finance, 37, 393-405.

Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 251–276.

Fatah, F. A., Othman, N., & Abdullah, S. (2012). Economic growth, political freedom and human development: China, Indonesia and Malaysia. International Journal of Business and Social Science, 3(1).

Fatima, N., & Zaman, A. (2018). Financial Development, Innovation, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Developing Countries. Journal of Policy Options, 5(1), 6-17.

Ghali, K. H., & Ahmed, A.-M. (1999). The intertemporal causal dynamics between fixed capital formation and economic growth in the group-of-seven countries. International Economic Journal, 13(2), 31–37.

Ghatak, S., & Siddiki, J. U. (2001). The use of the ARDL approach in estimating virtual exchange rates in India. Journal of Applied Statistics, 28(5), 573–583.

Ghosh, M. (2006). Economic growth and human development in Indian states. Economic and Political Weekly, 3321-3329.

Greenwood, J., & Jovanovic, B. (1990). Financial development, growth, and the distribution of income. Journal of political Economy, 98(5, Part 1), 1076-1107.

Grubaugh, S. G. (2015). Economic growth and growth in human development. Applied Econometrics and International Development, 15(2), 5-16.

Herwartz, H., & Walle, Y. M. (2014). Determinants of the link between financial and economic development: Evidence from a functional-coefficient model. Economic Modeling, 37, 417-427.

Ibrahim, M. H. & Alagidede, P. (2018). Nonlinearities in financial development–economic growth nexus: Evidence from sub-Saharan Africa. Research in International Business and Finance, 46, 95-104.

Ismail, H., & Saeed, A. (2017). Islamic Banking and Finance in Pakistan: Growth Trends, Outlook, and Strategic Imperatives. Journal of Policy Options, 4(3), 70-78.

Jalil, A., & Ma, Y. (2008). Financial development and economic growth: Time series evidence from Pakistan and China. Journal of Economic Cooperation, 29(2), 29-68.

Jalil, A., Feridun, M., & Ma, Y. (2010). Finance-growth nexus in China revisited: New evidence from principal components and ARDL bounds tests. International Review of Economics & Finance, 19(2), 189–195.

Jalil, et al. (2011). “Impact of financial development on economic growth: empirical evidence from Pakistan”. journal of the Asia Pacific economy, vol.16. no.1. February 2011, 71-80.

Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2–3), 231–254.

Johansen, S. (1991). Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in Gaussian vector autoregressive models. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1551–1580.

Johansen, S. (1995). Likelihood-based inference in cointegrated vector autoregressive models. OUP Oxford.

Johansen, S., & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration—with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2), 169–210.

Kar, M., Nazlıoglu, S., & Agir, H. (2011). Financial development and economic growth nexus in the MENA countries: Bootstrap panel granger causality analysis. Economic Modeling, 28(1-2),685-693.

Khan, A. (2016). Driving Economic Growth Through Vocational Education: Empirical Evidences from Pakistan. Journal of Policy Options, 3(2), 29-36.

Khan, A., Ahmed, M., & Bibi, S. (2018). Financial development and economic growth nexus for Pakistan: A revisit using maximum entropy bootstrap approach. Empirical Economics, 1-13.

Khan, M. A. (2008). Foreign direct investment and economic growth: The role of the domestic financial sector. Working Paper No.18, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.

Khan, M. A., & Qayyum, A. (2007). Trade, financial and growth nexus in Pakistan (No. 2007, 14). Economic Analysis Working Papers.

Khan, M. Z. U., & Rehman, F. (2021). Interconnectedness of Economic Variables: Insights from Pakistan’s Endogenous Growth Model. Journal of Business and Economic Options, 8(4).

Khan, M., Qayyum A. and Shiekh, S. (2005). “ Financial development and economic growth: The case of Pakistan” The Pakistan development review,44: 4 part II (Winter 2005) pp: 819-837

Khan, R., & Ullah, B. (2017). Examining the Impact of Firm Sustainability Practices on Firm Growth: Evidence from the United States. Journal of Policy Options, 4(4), 89-103.

Kiani, A., & Ali, M. (2019). Impact of Financial Intermediation and Financial Sector Efficiency on Economic Growth in Pakistan. JISR management and social sciences & economics, 17(1), 21-40.

King, R. G., & Levine, R. (1993). Finance and growth: Schumpeter might be right. The quarterly journal of economics, 108(3), 717-737.

Kong, Y., Nketia, E. B., Antwi, S. K., & Musah, M. (2020). Scrutinizing the complex relationship between financial development gross fixed capital formation and economic growth in Africa by adopting CCEMG and AMG estimation techniques. International Journal of Science and Business, 4(11), 160–174.

Kuznets, S. (1955). Economic growth and income inequality. The American Economic Review, 45(1), 1-28.

Kwon, D.-B. (2009). Human capital and its measurement. The 3rd OECD World Forum on “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy” Charting Progress, Building Visions, Improving Life, 27–30.

Labeeque, A., & Sanaullah, A. (2017). Towards Inclusive Economic Growth: Synthesizing Strategies for Social Inclusion in Development. Journal of Policy Options, 4(1), 16-26.

Law, S. H., & Singh, N. (2014). Does too much finance harm economic growth? Journal of Banking & Finance, 41, 36-44.

Levine, R. (1997). Financial development and economic growth: views and agenda. Journal of Economic Literature, 35(2), 688–726.

Levine, R. (2005). Finance and growth: theory and evidence. Handbook of economic growth, 1, 865-934.

Levine, R., & Renelt, D. (1992). A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions. The American Economic Review, 942–963.

Lucas, R. (1988). On the mechanics of economic development, Journal of Monetary Economics 22(1), 3-42.

Luintel, K. B., & Khan, M. (1999). A quantitative reassessment of the finance–growth nexus: evidence from a multivariate VAR. Journal of development economics, 60(2), 381-405.

MacKinnon, J. G. (1996). Numerical distribution functions for unit root and cointegration tests. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11(6), 601–618.

Mahmood, A. (2013). Impact of financial development on economic growth of Pakistan. Abasyn journal of social sciences, 6(2), 106-116.

Mansoor Khan, M. (2008). Main features of the interest‐free banking movement in Pakistan (1980‐2006). Managerial Finance, 34(9), 660-674.

Maune, A., Matanda, E., & Mundonde, J. (2020). Does financial inclusion cause economic growth in Zimbabwe? An empirical investigation. Acta Universitatis Danubius. Œconomica, 16(1).

McKinnon, R. I. (1973). Money and capital in economic development. Washington DC: Brookings Institution.

Mian, A., Sufi, A., & Trebbi, F. (2014). Resolving debt overhang: Political constraints in the aftermath of financial crises. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 6(2), 1-28.

Michael, P., & Todaro, S. (2008). Economic Development .

Michalopoulos, S., Laeven, L., & Levine, R. (2009). Financial innovation and endogenous growth. National Bureau of Economic Research.

Muhammad, A. A. (2023). Examining the Relationship among Unemployment, Inflation, and Economic Growth. Journal of Business and Economic Options, 10(2), 23-31.

Munir, S., Chaudhry, I. S., & Akhtar, M. H. (2013). Financial liberalization and economic growth in Pakistan: Empirical evidence from co-integration analysis. Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences, 33(2), 227-241.

Narayan, P. (2004). Reformulating critical values for the bounds F-statistics approach to cointegration: an application to the tourism demand model for Fiji (Vol. 2, Issue 04). Monash University Australia.

Narayan, P. K., & Narayan, S. (2013). The short-run relationship between the financial system and economic growth: New evidence from regional panels. International Review of Financial Analysis, 29, 70-78.

Naveed, S., & Mahmood, Z. (2019). Impact of domestic financial liberalization on economic growth in Pakistan. Journal of Economic Policy Reform, 22(1), 16-34.

Odedokun, M. O. (1996). Alternative econometric approaches for analysing the role of the financial sector in economic growth: Time-series evidence from LDCs. Journal of Development Economics, 50(1), 119–146.

Odhiambo, N. M. (2008). Financial depth, savings and economic growth in Kenya: A dynamic causal linkage. Economic Modelling, 25(4), 704–713.

Pacillo, G. (2022). Urbanization, Economic Growth, and Equity in Sri Lanka: Trends, Patterns, and Policy Implications. Journal of Business and Economic Options, 9(3).

Patrick, H. T. (1966). Financial development and economic growth in underdeveloped countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 14(2), 174-189.

Pesaran, H. H., & Shin, Y. (1998). Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models. Economics Letters, 58(1), 17–29.

Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326.

Pradhan, R. P., Arvin, M. B., & Bahmani, S. (2018). Are innovation and financial development causative factors in economic growth? Evidence from a panel granger causality test. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 132, 130-142.

Qamruzzaman, M., & Jianguo, W. (2017). Financial innovation and economic growth in Bangladesh. Financial Innovation, 3(1), 1–24.

Rahman, A., Khan, M. A., & Charfeddine, L. (2020). Financial development–economic growth nexus in Pakistan: new evidence from the Markov switching model. Cogent Economics & Finance, 8(1), 1716446.

Rehman, A., & Cheema, A. (2013). Financial development and real sector growth in Pakistan. Interdisciplinary Journal of Contemporary Research in Business, 5(1), 618-636.

Rioja, F., & Valev, N. (2004). Finance and the sources of growth at various stages of economic development. Economic Inquiry, 42(1), 127-140.

Robinson, J. (1952). The Generalization of the General Theory, in the Rate of Interest and Other Essays. London: Macmillan.

Romer, P. M. (1986). Increasing returns and long-run growth. Journal of Political Economy, 94(5), 1002-1037.

Saint-Paul, G. (1992). Fiscal policy in an endogenous growth model. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(4), 1243-1259.

Saksena, S., & Deb, M. (2017). Economic Growth and Human Development in Indian States after Two Decades of Economic Reforms1. Indian Journal of Economics and Development, 13(2), 269-280.

Saleem, A., Sági, J., & Setiawan, B. (2021). Islamic financial depth, financial intermediation, and sustainable economic growth: ARDL approach. Economies, 9(2), 49.

Samargandi, N., Fidrmuc, J., & Ghosh, S. (2015). Is the relationship between financial development and economic growth monotonic? Evidence from a sample of middle-income countries. World Development, 68, 66-81.

Sassi, S., & Gasmi, A. (2014). The effect of enterprise and household credit on economic growth: New evidence from European Union countries. Journal of Macroeconomics, 39, 226-231.

Schularick, M., & Taylor, A. M. (2012). Credit booms gone bust: monetary policy, leverage cycles, and financial crises, 1870–2008. American Economic Review, 102(2), 1029-1061.

Schumpeter, J. (1912). The theory of economic development: An inquiry into profits, capital, credit, interest and business cycle. Cambridge Mass: Harvard University Press.

Shaheen, S. et al. (2011). "Financial development, International trade, and economic growth: empirical evidence from Pakistan,

Shaw, E. S. (1973). Financial deepening in economic development. New York: Oxford University Press.

Shittu, A. I. (2012). Financial intermediation and economic growth in Nigeria. British Journal of Arts and Social Sciences, 4(2), 164–179.

Singh, A. (1997). Financial liberalisation, stockmarkets and economic development. The economic journal, 107(442), 771-782.

Solow, R. M. (1957). Technical change and the aggregate production function. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 312–320.

Sossounov, K., & Kolenikov, S. (2023). Addressing Inequality Amidst Economic Growth in Russia. Journal of Business and Economic Options, 10(2), 18-22.

Suri, T., Boozer, M. A., Ranis, G., & Stewart, F. (2011). Paths to success: The relationship between human development and economic growth. World Development, 39(4), 506-522.

Tahir, M. (2008). An investigation of the effectiveness of financial development in Pakistan. The Lahore Journal of Economics, 13(2), 27-44.

Trpeski, P., & Cvetanoska, M. (2019). Gross fixed capital formation and productivity in Southeastern Europe.

Waheed, A., Najia.Y. (2009). Financial development and economic growth: empirical evidence from Pakistan. Asian Economic Review, 51(1), 33-42.

Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2009). Re-examining the financial development and economic growth nexus in Kenya. Economic Modelling, 26(6), 1140–1146.

Yasin, M. (2011). Public spending and economic growth: empirical investigation of Sub-Saharan Africa. Southwestern Economic Review, 30, 59-68.

Zhu, X., Asimakopoulos, S., & Kim, J. (2020). Financial development and innovation-led growth: Is too much finance better?. Journal of International Money and Finance, 100, 102083.

Downloads

Published

2024-03-25

Issue

Section

Articles

How to Cite

Akhtar, Z. M. ., Gul, F. ., & Mubarak, F. . (2024). Economic Growth and Financial Intermediation Nexus in Pakistan: An ARDL Analysis. Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), 13(1). https://doi.org/10.61506/01.00238

Similar Articles

1-10 of 286

You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.

Most read articles by the same author(s)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 > >>