Exploring the Impact of Foreign Loans, and Foreign Aid on Economic Performance: Evidence from Nepal
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61506/01.00290Keywords:
Economic Performance, Foreign Loans, Foreign Aid, Globalization, ARDL ModelAbstract
This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the impact of foreign loans, foreign aid, and globalization on economic performance in Nepal over the period from 1990 to 2022. Using the ARDL model and diagnostic tests, the study examines various aspects including the influence of foreign aid, foreign loans, economic globalization, social globalization, and political globalization on economic performance. The results reveal significant positive effects of foreign aid and foreign loans on economic performance, emphasizing the importance of effective resource utilization for investment and savings. Policy recommendations include optimizing aid allocation and responsible borrowing practices to maximize their contribution to economic growth. Furthermore, the study underscores the favorable effect of economic, political, and social globalization on economic performance, highlighting the need for policies fostering international trade, cooperation, and investment. Additionally, prioritizing investments in capital and labor, guided by evidence-based policies, is crucial for driving economic growth and productivity. Continuous monitoring and adjustment of economic policies are essential for maintaining long-term stability and sustaining economic progress.
References
Abd el Hamid Ali, H. (2013). Foreign aid and economic growth in Egypt: A cointegration analysis. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 3(3), 743-751.
Addison, T., & Baliamoune-Lutz, M. (2017). Aid, the real exchange rate and why policy matters: The cases of Morocco and Tunisia. The Journal of Development Studies, 53(7), 1104-1121. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2017.1303673
Ali, A. (2022). Foreign Debt, Financial Stability, Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Growth in South Asian Countries. University Library of Munich, Germany.
Almas, H., & Sangchoon, L. E. E. (2010). The relationship between globalization, economic growth and income inequality. Journal of Globalization Studies, 1(2), 87-117.
Ashiq, R., & Akhlaque, S. (2019). Interest Rate Dynamics and External Debt Accumulation: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan. Journal of Business and Economic Options, 2(3).
Asiedu, E., Jin, Y., & Nandwa, B. (2009). Does foreign aid mitigate the adverse effect of expropriation risk on foreign direct investment?. Journal of International Economics, 78(2), 268-275. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2009.03.004
Ayadi, F. S., & Ayadi, F. O. (2008). The impact of external debt on economic growth: A comparative study of Nigeria and South Africa. Journal of sustainable development in Africa, 10(3), 234-264.
Azra, A., Munir, S., Abbas, K., Khalid, M. H., & Haq, I. U. (2023). Empirical Investigation of the Impact of Energy intensity and Financial Institutions Efficiency on Environmental Degradation in Pakistan. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 13(1), 413. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.13874
Barnosky, A. D., Hadly, E. A., Bascompte, J., Berlow, E. L., Brown, J. H., Fortelius, M., ... & Smith, A. B. (2012). Approaching a state shift in Earth’s biosphere. Nature, 486(7401), 52-58. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11018
Bhagwati, J. (2004). In defense of globalization: With a new afterword. Oxford University Press.
Chang, C. P., & Lee, C. C. (2010). Globalization and economic growth: A political economy analysis for OECD countries. Global Economic Review, 39(2), 151-173. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/1226508X.2010.483835
Chang, C. P., Berdiev, A. N., & Lee, C. C. (2013). Energy exports, globalization and economic growth: The case of South Caucasus. Economic Modelling, 33, 333-346. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.04.027
Davidson, R., & MacKinnon, J. G. (1993). Estimation and inference in econometrics (Vol. 63). New York: Oxford.
Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American statistical association, 74(366a), 427-431. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531
Dornan, M., & Pryke, J. (2017). Foreign aid to the Pacific: Trends and developments in the twenty‐first century. Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies, 4(3), 386-404. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/app5.185
Dreher, A. (2006). Does globalization affect growth? Evidence from a new index of globalization. Applied economics, 38(10), 1091-1110.
Dreher, A. (2006). Does globalization affect growth? Evidence from a new index of globalization. Applied economics, 38(10), 1091-1110. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500392078
Easterly, W. (2006). Planners versus searchers in foreign aid. Asian Development Review, 23(02), 1-35. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1142/S0116110506500053
Elayah, M. (2016). Lack of foreign aid effectiveness in developing countries between a hammer and an anvil. Contemporary Arab Affairs, 9(1), 82-99. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/17550912.2015.1124519
Fengler, W., & Kharas, H. (2010). Overview: Delivering aid differently. Delivering aid differently: Lessons from the field, 1-41.
Gasimli, O., Haq, I. U., Munir, S., Khalid, M. H., Gamage, S. K. N., Khan, A., & Ishtiaq, M. (2022). Globalization and sustainable development: empirical evidence from CIS countries. Sustainability, 14(22), 14684. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/su142214684
Giri, A., Khatiwada, P., Shrestha, B., & Chettri, R. K. (2013). Perceptions of government knowledge and control over contributions of aid organizations and INGOs to health in Nepal: a qualitative study. Globalization and health, 9, 1-15. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/1744-8603-9-1
Gündüz, M. (2020). Financial globalization and economic growth: Panel causality analysis for EU. In Handbook of Research on Social and Economic Development in the European Union (pp. 99-116). IGI Global. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4018/978-1-7998-1188-6.ch006
Gygli, S., Haelg, F., Potrafke, N., & Sturm, J. E. (2019). The KOF globalisation index–revisited. The Review of International Organizations, 14, 543-574. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11558-019-09344-2
Haini, H., Wei Loon, P., Yong, S. K., & Husseini, S. (2023). Does Social Globalization Affect the Relationship Between International Tourism and Economic Growth?. Journal of Travel Research, 00472875221146779. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/00472875221146779
Hansen, H., & Tarp, F. (2001). Aid and growth regressions. Journal of development Economics, 64(2), 547-570. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3878(00)00150-4
Haque, M. H. U., Iftikhar, K., & Rizvi, S. Z. A. (2023). Exploring the Channel of Transmission between External Debt and Economic Growth: Evidence from Lower Middle Income Countries. Pakistan Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, 11(2), 1561-1574. DOI: https://doi.org/10.52131/pjhss.2023.1102.0462
Hassan, S. T., Xia, E., Khan, N. H., & Shah, S. M. A. (2019). Economic growth, natural resources, and ecological footprints: evidence from Pakistan. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 26, 2929-2938. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-018-3803-3
Hye, Q. M. A., Ul-Haq, J., Visas, H., & Rehan, R. (2023). The role of eco-innovation, renewable energy consumption, economic risks, globalization, and economic growth in achieving sustainable environment in emerging market economies. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30(40), 92469-92481. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-28945-4
Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of economic dynamics and control, 12(2-3), 231-254. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1889(88)90041-3
Jokolelono, E., Djirimu, M. A., Mangun, N., Darwis, I., & Jaya, A. H. (2023). Determinant factors on Indonesia's economic growth: An analysis of foreign debt, foreign investment, exports, and exchange reserves. Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Studies, 6(5), 2223-2231. DOI: https://doi.org/10.47191/jefms/v6-i5-40
Kaypak, Ş. (2011). Küreselleşme sürecinde sürdürülebilir bir kalkınma için sürdürülebilir bir çevre. Karamanoğlu Mehmetbey Üniversitesi Sosyal ve Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 2011(1), 19-33.
Khadka, N. (1997). Foreign aid to Nepal: donor motivations in the post-cold war period. Asian Survey, 37(11), 1044-1061. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2645740
Khalid, M. H., Ul Haq, I., Khan, D., & Abbas, K. (2022). Exploring the impact of economic structure on carbon emissions: a case study of Pakistan. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 12(3), 425-431. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.12989
Khatri, A., & Paija, N. (2022). A long-run nexus of renewable energy consumption and economic growth in Nepal. In Energy-Growth Nexus in an Era of Globalization (pp. 27-66). Elsevier. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-824440-1.00017-5
KOF Swiss Economic Institute (2023). KOF Globalization Index.
Krishna, P., & Singh, R. (2020). Fiscal Sustainability and Debt Dynamics: Evidence from South Asian Countries. Journal of Business and Economic Options, 3(1).
Majidi, A. F. (2017). Globalization and economic growth: The case study of developing countries. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 7(6), 589. DOI: https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.aefr.2017.76.589.599
Mascagni, G., & Timmis, E. (2017). The fiscal effects of aid in Ethiopia: evidence from CVAR applications. The Journal of Development Studies, 53(7), 1037-1056. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2017.1303676
Meo, M. S., Chowdhury, M. A. F., Shaikh, G. M., Ali, M., & Masood Sheikh, S. (2018). Asymmetric impact of oil prices, exchange rate, and inflation on tourism demand in Pakistan: new evidence from nonlinear ARDL. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 23(4), 408-422. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/10941665.2018.1445652
Mohapatra, G., Giri, A. K., & Sehrawat, M. (2016). Foreign aid, macroeconomic policies and economic growth nexus in India: An ARDL bounds testing approach. Theoretical & Applied Economics, 23(4).
Murshed, M., & Khanaum, M. M. (2014). Impact of foreign aid in the economic development of recipient country. Journal of the Bangladesh Association of Young Researchers, 2(1), 33-37. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3329/jbayr.v2i1.20539
Mutascu, M., & Fleischer, A. M. (2011). Economic growth and globalization in Romania. World Applied Sciences Journal, 12(10), 1691-1697.
Nguyen, C.H. (2020). The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment, Aid and Exports on Economic Growth in Vietnam. The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 7(10), 581-589. DOI: https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2020.vol7.no10.581
Nowak‐Lehmann, F., Dreher, A., Herzer, D., Klasen, S., & Martínez‐Zarzoso, I. (2012). Does foreign aid really raise per capita income? A time series perspective. Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, 45(1), 288-313. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5982.2011.01696.x
Ozturkcan, S. (2002, July). Globalization and Economic Growth. In 11th Annual IMDA Conference, July (pp. 20-24).
Panayotou, T. (2000). Globalization and environment. CID Working Paper Series.
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), 289-326. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
Phillips, P. C., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. biometrika, 75(2), 335-346. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/75.2.335
Premaratne, D., & Deshal, D. M. (2009). Migration and remittances in South Asia, policy brief (no. 12). South Asia Watch on Trade, Economics & Environment (SAWTEE).
Radulović, M., & Kostić, M. (2020). Globalization and economic growth of Eurozone economies. Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci: časopis za ekonomsku teoriju i praksu, 38(1), 183-214. DOI: https://doi.org/10.18045/zbefri.2020.1.183
Raihan, A., & Tuspekova, A. (2022). Nexus between economic growth, energy use, agricultural productivity, and carbon dioxide emissions: new evidence from Nepal. Energy Nexus, 7, 100113. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nexus.2022.100113
Safdar, Z., & Malik, R. (2020). Unraveling the Interplay Between External Debt and Economic Growth: Insights from Pakistan's Macroeconomic Landscape. Journal of Business and Economic Options, 3(3).
Sahoo, K. (2016). Foreign aid and economic development: Empirical evidence from select South Asian Economies (Doctoral dissertation).
Sakurai, H., & Sakurai, H. (2021). Foreign aid loans and economic growth in Thailand. Effects of Foreign Aid: Evidence from Thailand, 37-50. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-2482-7_4
Samimi, P., & Jenatabadi, H. S. (2014). Globalization and economic growth: Empirical evidence on the role of complementarities. PloS one, 9(4), e87824. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0087824
Santiago, R., Fuinhas, J. A., & Marques, A. C. (2020). The impact of globalization and economic freedom on economic growth: the case of the Latin America and Caribbean countries. Economic Change and Restructuring, 53(1), 61-85. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-018-9239-4
Shahbaz, M., Shahzad, S. J. H., Ahmad, N., & Alam, S. (2016). Financial development and environmental quality: the way forward. Energy policy, 98, 353-364. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.09.002
Singh, P., & Pradhan, K. C. (2023). Do Remittances Stimulate Economic Growth In Nepal? Evidence From ARDL Approach. The Journal of Developing Areas, 57(4), 297-318. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1353/jda.2023.a908659
Tekbaş, M. (2021). The impact of economic, social and political globalization on economic growth: evidence from BRICS-T Countries. Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences, 20(1), 57-71. DOI: https://doi.org/10.21547/jss.796472
Todaro, M. P., & Smith, S. C. (2003). Economic Development 8th Edition, England.
Van Hoa, T. (2007). Foreign Aid and Development in Thailand: Causality and Political Economy. Thammasat Economic Journal (Thailand), 25(4), 127-54.
Wen, J., Mughal, N., Zhao, J., Shabbir, M. S., Niedbała, G., Jain, V., & Anwar, A. (2021). Does globalization matter for environmental degradation? Nexus among energy consumption, economic growth, and carbon dioxide emission. Energy policy, 153, 112230. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112230
World Bank. (2021), World Development Indicators (WDI). Online Database. United States: World Bank.
Zahonogo, P. (2018). Globalization and economic growth in developing countries: evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. The International Trade Journal, 32(2), 189-208. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/08853908.2017.1333933